To enable statements to be made on the possible future development of the market for recyclates, the RWI has used four scenarios to examine the influence of various relevant situational conditions for the period up to 2030. These scenarios for the first time offer a basis for a sound estimate quantifying the economic potentials of plastics recycling.

BASIC SCENARIO

In the BASIC SCENARIO, econometric procedures are used to estimate the further developments that would ensue without any changes to the current institutional situational conditions and with an unaltered market structure.

SCENARIO 1


In SCENARIO 1, the market development is presented on the basis of estimated quantities for lightweight plastic packages, as resulting from increased quotas and the use of technical potentials for sorting, separation and treatment.

 

SCENARIO 2


In SCENARIO 2, the recycling of non-packages made of the same materials is also factored in.

 

SCENARIO 3


In SCENARIO 3, the effects of a favorable market development and enhanced product quality on the demand for recycled plastics are examined, together with the resultant effects on the market volume.

 

The market for plastic recyclates has abundant potential

The results show that plastics recycling in Germany has substantial inherent potential. In 2014, the market volume for plastic recyclates was running at 189 million euros. In the basic scenario, the market for regranulates will by 2030 have grown by 119 percent to reach 414 million euros – given unchanged structures and demand conditions. By using the technical options available, and with improved situational conditions and favorably developing levels of demand as compared to this basic scenario, it will then even be possible to triple the market volume to more than 1.4 billion euros. Compared to 2014, this would correspond to a more-than-sevenfold rise in market volume.

A development of this kind, however, will be conditional upon tapping into new customer groupings.

 

It is noteworthy how much inherent potential the system already possesses. This is because firstly the scenarios do not postulate any substantial technological advances, but merely nationwide use of today's leading-edge technology. Secondly, the situational changes factored into the scenarios have long since already formed part of the political discussion, and in some cases may soon be implemented, under the aegis of the German Packaging Act, which demands more ambitious quotas, for example.

The economic benefits of the dual system could increase still further

The present-day economic benefits of the dual system, totaling approximately 960 million euros, could increase still further given rigorously purposeful use of the existing potentials. An additional improvement in the institutional situational conditions – thanks to higher quotas and the introduction of the Recyclables Bin – would even upsize the economic benefits of the dual system to approximately 1.33 billion euros. These measures would admittedly entail higher system costs, but the net benefits of the dual system would nonetheless rise substantially.

 

Companies are increasingly taking ecological considerations on board, thus opening up markets for recyclates

 

At the same time, the willingness of packaging manufacturers to use secondary raw materials, not least for reasons of sustainability, has increased significantly, since companies are attaching ever-greater importance to their ecological image, and in entrepreneurial decisions corporate social responsibility and instruments like product life-cycle analyses are gaining steadily in perceived significance.

 

If the availability of recyclates featuring consistent qualities is expanded, this will create new markets for premium recyclates. The ecological advantage achieved by using recycled materials can also contribute towards progressing convergence between the prices for recyclates and primary goods.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

There is an immense potential for plastics recycling in Germany. A properly functioning market for recyclates is already in place, especially in the category of simple applications. However, the demand for premium recyclates is steadily rising.

New application categories are being tapped – frequently still within the framework of flagship projects. The RWI study shows that the recycling of post-consumer lightweight packages in Germany is at an important turning point. Opening up markets for premium recyclates on an industrial scale would be tantamount to a breakthrough. The results of the study also make it clear that this is the right course to adopt, not only out of ecological considerations, but for economic reasons as well.

New application categories are being tapped – frequently still within the framework of flagship projects. The RWI study shows that the recycling of post-consumer lightweight packages in Germany is at an important turning point. Opening up markets for premium recyclates on an industrial scale would be tantamount to a breakthrough. The results of the study also make it clear that this is the right course to adopt, not only out of ecological considerations, but for economic reasons as well.

 

 

 

 

 

Higher quotas and factual improvements in enforcement (meaningful specialist regulation and the possibility of rigorous sanctions against violations by all protagonists involved) would be a potent source of leverage for releasing the economic potentials of plastics recycling by the dual system, as would giving more weight to ecological factors in fixing the participation fees, or extending product responsibility to non-packages made of the same materials. The German Packaging Act can play a vital role in this context, and impart crucial impetus to developments in the field of recycling. This would trigger increased recycling – and constitute an important step forward in the thrust for a genuine closed-cycle economy.